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Thursday, July 9, 2015

Austerity! Austerity! We must have Austerity!

Austerity! Austerity! We must have Austerity!

The concept of Austerity with a capital A is mostly a European invention. It was used during the second War to End All Wars, aka WWII, to bolster popular support for doing without essential commodities so that the Allies could win the war. Germany imposed its brand of austerity but more with the butt of a rifle than with the rhetoric of the Ministry of Food and other governmental bureaucracies. The populace was exhorted to conserve, ration, and do without in order to spread around what supplies remained available so that everyone had something.

During WWI and WWII the shortages were due to Germany's armies attacking the supply ships and resource producing capacities. Today the austerity stems from government inaction, willful refusal to raise the necessary financial revenues that the economy needs and the unfunded growth in living population that requires support.

In America we call it "cutting entitlements" while the rest of the world calls for Austerity. In the US the Conservatives disparage the poor, low-wage employees, the lazy, and moochers for the state of deficit and growth of spending. The reality is that the greatest growth in public spending is military, increased cost of pharmaceuticals and other medical costs, the cost for each additional American who reaches retirement age and tried to start collecting his/her pensions and Social Security. Public welfare costs are the smallest portion of the total costs.

In the US a sizable portion of the retired and soon-to-be retired population has privately funded and employer paid pensions. In the European economic sector most people are expecting to receive publically funded pensions. Here in the US, Republican-led legislatures are gutting the public pension sectors in advance of accelerated retirement of our "baby boom" population that is 59 million strong. The people who were in charge of making sure that the revenue collections and investment returns were adequate to the task failed to perform. Now they seek to pin the blame of too many "welfare queens", moochers and Union Thug attitudes that gift big pensions to public sector union employees at taxpayer expense.

On both sided of the Atlantic the underlying causes of national debt and budget deficits are the aging population and the failure to assess and collect taxes on business profits. In Greece the businesses just don't pay and nobody has the juice to pursue the deadbeats. In the US the corporations and wealthy families sequester their wealth in off-shore nations where the US Treasury cannot yet touch them. The estimate of domestic profits of US companies sequestered abroad range from 2 to 6 Trillion Dollars. Sometimes these same Dollars are the ones that were used to buy the foreign and US national debt bonds. The difference between the investments and the funds paid as taxes is that the bond funds generate interest while the taxes don't.

The Three Things That Money Will Get You

The idea that money will get an investor even more money via interest and capital appreciation is only the first and simplest of the benefits of having lots of spare money. Even a few percentage points on a billion dollars is a huge return. Even just 2% is $20 million per year.

The second benefit of lots of money is the ability to leverage an investment. $100 Million as matching can leverage another $900 million and build a lot of asset property that will generate annual income and possibly appreciate in capital value for later sale.

The third benefit of lots of money is power over other peoples' lives. When someone owes you money they owe you allegiance as well. This is the most seductive of the three uses for the entity that has the money. It is also the one that gets the lender the biggest potential reward.

Making a loan that is paid back on time has an arithmetic maximum value. That 2% interest is good for $20 million a year for maybe 10 years. So the value is limited to $200 million. If the borrower is late, the interest amount paid goes up.

If the borrower becomes less than AAA rated, the lender may require additional collateral to be signed over to protect the balance. That total collateral may actually exceed the original loan balance and might appreciate during the loan term.

Lastly, if the borrower defaults the lender may acquire valuable assets that he had his eye on all along.  Such is the urban Real Estate game in some neighborhoods in some cities. What the borrower wanted was title to all the properties within a contiguous area. Over lending on the property, employing low introductory adjustable rates and helping a neighborhood to decay assures that it is only a matter of time before everyone defaults and walks away from their homes. Then the urban redevelopment is designed and built.

In the case of major lending to governments, even though the loans are not expressly collateralized, when a default and a bankruptcy occurs, all public assets are placed on the table to be haggled over by the parties and the court.

The world saw that exact practice employed in South American countries in the 1970s when Venezuela, Chili, Argentina, and other countries were forced into submission with debt and austerity that left the populace unable to resist the fire sale deals their US installed military Dictators signed with multinational corporations. Prior to the privatization process, the countries' governments owned all of the major businesses and resources: Gas and oil rights, water distribution, telecommunications companies, roads and bridges, dams, and electric generation capacity. Afterwards most of those assets were owned by the likes of ITT, Goldman Sachs, et al.

Later the same maneuvers were applied to Eastern Europe, Asia and Russia.     

Austerity is one of the methods that Naomi Klein describes in detail in her book "The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism". Cut the revenue stream i.e. don't actually collect taxes, slash all public spending, raise prices, and lend money to "balance" budgets then collect. Currency becomes worthless, banks are closed. Then the government sells all its public assets (schools, water distribution, sewage systems, telecom, natural resources at fire sale prices of Cents on the Dollar.) Does all this sound familiar about Greece? It should!
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This is a practice invented by the Milton Friedman devotees and employed widely in South America in the 1970s. They used it to privatize much of the economy by multinational corporations.

Greece is now in jeopardy of defaulting on billions in national debt that was provided by lenders outside of Greece. The German government finance people brokered the original loans and convinced the backers of the International Monitory Fund (IMF) to lend the funds. Those backers used German peoples' pension funds to make those loans and now Germany is loath to forgive any amounts because Germans would have to feel the pressure of the loss of their money. It goes around and around and can be described by the Domino Model as described in the Principle of Imminent Collapse. One weak link in the financial chain can bring down a host of other money funds that are dependent on the music not stopping in the Game of Musical Chairs.

The USA can issue additional dollars any time it wants to to bolster and stabilize its currency and have sufficient funds for people to continue to do business and pay their bills. As part of the Eurozone, Greece cannot do that. They cannot devalue their currency relative to other nations because it is Euros and they don't control that. With Drachmas they could. But with an exit of the Eurozone at this troubling time chaos would surely follow. This is not to say that an orderly exit after becoming stable again, Greece won't choose to leave.

The bigger worry in the world is the debt to GDP ratio that must be maintained in order for people to not revolt must be kept in order. Every Western nation and in Asia is on the same track to bankruptcy in they do not do something about their lack of government revenues needed to pay their debts. In this scenario, Greece is merely the Canary in the mineshaft and I've seen the canary.

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